Economics

It is hard to avoid talking about the economy these days - it's the new weather. News networks can't stop talking about it even though they really don't know what is going on and everyone has a say regardless if they've thought it through or not, they usually haven't. I think the hardest thing for people to do is either admit they are wrong or admit that they don't know and the economy has put a lot of people on the spot. I don't think it is possible to have someone tell you how the economy works because it is to complex to define in such finite terms, mainly cause the economy doesn't work, it just is. I'm an avid fan of the Daily Show and recently watched John Stewart's interview with Jim Cramer. It was really interesting to watch but I have to say it was also really scary. It made me realize how little people really understand about the market. I knew I had very little idea of how it worked, but it never occurred to me that the experts also don't know that much either. It was also scary that while Cramer admitted that CNBC made mistakes it didn't really feel like it mattered. I've read articles about hedge fund managers that found data that indicated that the market was going to fail, but decided to keep the knowledge to themselves because knowing this information gave them an edge. Wow. Well at least we can predict some of this information. I've only taken basic economic classes, but I have also gleaned some information from a friend who was a econ major. I have to say that while these classes gave me some insight they opened far more questions. It also made me realize that there are some things that just can't be accounted for. One of the best examples is Apple's Ipod. When the Ipod took dominance Apple wasn't looking that good as a computer company. It wasn't doing bad, but it was in a seriously small niche market. So then why did it launch a music player, and why did that music player do so well? On many accounts I have seen better MP3 players at lower costs that have been destroyed by the Ipod. I suppose it partly has to do with the Ipod marketing itself as the premier MP3 player. In many ways it is a status symbol and people are attracted to that. Another example is that of people unwilling to pay for something too low. In some cases you just have to raise the price of something for people to want it. I know whenever a store give me a "free gift" I expect it to be crap that I never wanted in the first place and crap that nobody wanted ever and that is why they are giving it away. But how do you model that? How do you model a relatively unpredictable human pysche into the economy. Some people say you can, and it will be interesting what the future brings.

And I never really talked about anything I wanted to.